Bed twist I guess. Got it as level as I could end to end and then shimmed up the front of the tailstock between the table ~.005" at a time with feeler gauges.
Now I think I have some success with the er32 collet chuck(hopefully)
Only thing I could think to do was recut the taper very lightly. Aligned the compound and just skimmed it 2x with .001" on the cross slide dial, now the runout at the chuck is basically gone. I tried with everything resembling precision I could fit in the chuck and got basically the same runout.
I think going forward I'll put the 4jaw back on, turn a bar down to 3/4"(just about my biggest collet) as long as I can without a taper. Then mount the collet chuck back on the lathe and chuck that piece to check runout further out.
I don't have anything else that's long and precise so I think that was some of the problem too.
To be fair I told you guys I was a shitty machinist