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Really ?

I don't agree. I do agree that there are many exceptions where individuals like arborists are very good at assessing risk for a particular situation or activity.

But there are thousands of risks we all take each and every day that we do not understand and do not do a good job of assessing. In that respect, an Arborist might be excellent at assessing the risks in their occupational field but that doesn't make them particularly good at assessing the many other risks they take everyday. As the book explains, most of us think that many aspects of the world around us are much riskier than they really are. And similarly, we underestimate the risks of doing things we normally take for granted.

FWIW, I am impressed by anyone who can routinely climb up trees that are rotten. I can't climb up two steps of a ladder without my hands welding themselves to the ladder structure.
Most people lack situational awareness
 
There are simple things you can control and unknown/unexpected things you can't when it comes to risk.

The simple things you can control are usually repeated throughout your life and reinforced with both scientific and anecdotal evidence that it becomes common practice.
 
Risk - The Science and Politics of Fear" by Dan Gardener
While we are talking about risk, there is a book that I highly recommend for everyone to read regardless of their risk tolerance. It's called "Risk - The Science and Politics of Fear" by Dan Gardener. It's a fantastic read and is available in digital and paper format.

Ordered, arrives tomorrow.
 
I guess the thing that bothers me the most is not the things we do to avoid real risk. It's the things we do to avoid perceived risks that are not real. In effect, we are afraid of our shadows.

Man has evolved in a way that favored fear. Fear is an evolutionary force. The best example I can think of is Wild Turkey. Those birds are as dumb as rocks. But their numbers are exploding. How can that be? The dodo bird was stupid and disappeared because of it. The difference is that the dodo had no fear. Wild turkey are afraid of their shadow. Wild Turkey will run from a threat a mile away and they have the eyesight to facilitate that. Fear is the wild Turkey's primary survival characteristic.

In many ways, fear is somewhat mankind's survival characteristic too. Our brains are hardwired to be afraid. Bad experiences imprint on us and change our behaviours forever. Good experiences imprint too, but not nearly so well. It takes 10 good experiences to bias our behaviour, but only one bad one.

This is what I meant when I said that most of us do not truly understand risk. Our fear of the unknown, our bad experiences, and the bad experiences of others totally overwhelms our logic and common sense. Simply put, fear is primal - common sense and logic are not. Because fear is primal, it kicks in early and then it short circuits common sense and logic.
 
I think it's a bit of a balancing act, with luck being the wild card. Ten young people do the same risky thing, nine survive some with a close call, most with no inkling of the danger and one dies.

So to your point Darwin prevails because a 10% mortality rate at a young age is high.

I knew an about 30 year old guy that was a risk taker, IMHO he was advancing in his career faster than his actual capabilities because he just ignored all the little details, ethics included. Anyways he went mountain climbing on his vacation and came down the fast way. Who knows he could have had a close call, or a small fall but no he was one of the unlucky 10%.

Also to your point a segment of the population live very dull long lives.

I prefer the quote by Hunter S. Thompson: "Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”".
 
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I know another adventures guy that did countless very risky things, was held at gunpoint numerous times, with one of the guys telling his buddy kill him now. Run-ins with the Colombian cartel, pirates etc etc. Close encounters with wildlife. Almost froze to death ( lost fingers and toes). Too many things to list. In the end he died of cancer.
 
Also to your point a segment of the population live very dull long lives.

I prefer the quote by Hunter S. Thompson: "Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”".

IMO that's probably the majority. Usually people get the adventurous spirit out of their system when they're young and then settle into a routine more disciplined lifestyle. Some people have no choice because they can't afford to do anything but work hard.

His life was definitely entertaining. But obviously that's the last type of person you want to have to rely on when you're trying to raise a family or get work done.
 
I prefer the quote by Hunter S. Thompson: "Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”".

LOL! That's not me that's for sure! I want to arrive with pride, poise, wisdom, and the happiness of a full rewarding life full of choices dominated by common sense and logic. I'm trying my best and I've done pretty well. Only about 16 years left to go.

If I do live beyond 95, I will probably only be alive through the choices made by others.

I have zero interest in sliding in broadside in a cloud of smoke. LOL!
 
LOL! That's not me that's for sure! I want to arrive with pride, poise, wisdom, and the happiness of a full rewarding life full of choices dominated by common sense and logic. I'm trying my best and I've done pretty well. Only about 16 years left to go.

If I do live beyond 95, I will probably only be alive through the choices made by others.

I have zero interest in sliding in broadside in a cloud of smoke. LOL!
Just make sure that the cheque you wrote to the funeral home bounces.
You can't take it with you.
 
Recently my father in law passed. His car was a Hyundai of some sort almost new. I'm tasked with retrieving it and then selling it.

FOB not working can't get in the car ( try both FOBs), finally get in it starts but the windshield wipers are so weak they can't move 1/2" of melting snow.

Get it home and I clean it up vacuum etc. the doors are open for about 1/2 hour that kills the (lawn tractor sized )battery. Look under the hood nope the battery is in the trunk. Trunk release is solenoid operated, cant get in the trunk. Google search yields various solutions one is boosting the car from some basically unreachable terminals under the hood or look in the backseat area for this little plastic cap, remove the cap and use needle nose pliers to reach down and find a string. Fish the string up and pull really hard. It worked but I'm guessing that string is good for perhaps 3 pulls before it breaks. What a complete piece of s****!

Put it up for sale with the title Low milage, almost new PRICED TO SELL.

I drove that car for 20km and it gave me more trouble than my Lexus has in 10 years.
That had to be designed by Retired 1950's VOLKSWAGON EnGINners!

Whilst my PITA is not machines designed STUpiD, let me share my #1 all time FAVORITE:

INSTRUCTION MANUALS

It really doesn't matter what you are looking at, Coffee Pot, Air Conditioner, Radio, Etc , Et¢., This started for me, in 1995, as a Manfactured Homes installation tech. (Fancy Dancy Titles for job titles comes in a Nearly Equal status) • • • • • • • If there was a CEILING FAN, it came boxed, instalation after the homes delivery. Now my BOSS, (Another Topic, but lets put a PIN in that) had a Requirement that I MUST read the INSTRUCTION MANUAL, prior to Instalation: the factory buys them a QuaBillion at a time, but "Maybe One is DIFFERENT" Aye WATT?

The first sentence, BURNED INTO MY BRAIN scarred, Branded I will remember it FOREVER:

"Please to read instructions before you Electricute yourself" WHICH obviously give a Technically Tallented person PERMISSION to electricute themselves AFTER reading the manual • • • • •

(This was not a >Bad Reply< I failed to remember the DAILY Morning Ritual) • • • • • •
COFFEE FIRST, Think Second

philip, From Baja Canada, Oregon Pacific NorthWET, USA

"The HISTORY of the Future, is yet to be Written"
 
LOL! That's not me that's for sure! I want to arrive with pride, poise, wisdom, and the happiness of a full rewarding life full of choices dominated by common sense and logic. I'm trying my best and I've done pretty well. Only about 16 years left to go.

If I do live beyond 95, I will probably only be alive through the choices made by others.

I have zero interest in sliding in broadside in a cloud of smoke. LOL!
Taken from this forum, at a time prior to this time, which, of course is now past tense, But I DIGRESS:

>>>But I could be blowing magic smoke into the wind out of my disposal port.<<<

YankEE's could not think that up, they hardly can handle past tense and THUNK about it . . . .

philip, from Oregon, PNW, USA

"TRUTH DOES NOT require Applause, it only requires

Survivors."

~Dan Bongino
 
On the spare tire cover of our travel trailer "Adventure Before Dementia " It's an Aussie saying. I'm lucky my wife is almost as adventurous as me.
1750347506573.png
 
I don't agree. I do agree that there are many exceptions where individuals like arborists are very good at assessing risk for a particular situation or activity.

But there are thousands of risks we all take each and every day that we do not understand and do not do a good job of assessing. In that respect, an Arborist might be excellent at assessing the risks in their occupational field but that doesn't make them particularly good at assessing the many other risks they take everyday. As the book explains, most of us think that many aspects of the world around us are much riskier than they really are. And similarly, we underestimate the risks of doing things we normally take for granted.

FWIW, I am impressed by anyone who can routinely climb up trees that are rotten. I can't climb up two steps of a ladder without my hands welding themselves to the ladder structure.
I guess I would have to read the book to understand your point of view.

The Arbourist was only part of the story for me. Being very mechanical, riding motor cross bikes and quads since a child, fast cars, crotch rockets. It’s 47 years of risk assessment daily. You learn to see things differently. Lots of times you get the you shouldn’t do this and may decide to do it anyway.

In the arborist world we would say You don’t need to know what’s going to happen only what may happen. One of these days I will start a thread with lots of pics of some of the storm damage stuff I have had to deal with. There no running away from a tree on a roof
 
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