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A new take on the present state of AI

someidiot

Well-Known Dismemberer
The caveat here is that as a rule I'm a late adopter who stays as far out on the trailing edge as possible, in just about everything I do. I ignore most new music that comes out, my theory being that it's probably just faddish bullshit, and if it turns out to have real staying power I'll catch up on it soon enough, usually within a few years. That's served me very well for decades. And I believe that buying almost anything new demonstrates moral failure when there's so much stuff available used, cheap, free. Besides, I'm usually broke, and sticking to that rule lets me - eventually - get the stuff I need. Eventually, everything comes to the patient bottom-feeder.

And so it is with AI. Sure, I understand the valid - and even important - use cases. But those are (volumetrically speaking) pretty tiny compared to the world of slop we suddenly find ourselves living in. So I'm going to keep my feet up for a while and see where it goes. I learned today of an interesting use case in reverse-engineering that may change my mind, but I'm waiting for details.

Here's an excellent interview with Roger McNamee, who was an early facebook investor who turned into one of its harshest critics - his book "Zucked" is a worthy read. Here's his take on what's going on in AI at the moment.

 
I follow the AI news here and there.

There has been a lot of "interesting" statements coming from the people who have a great deal of power and influence.

It is sometimes very disheartening to hear and see what some sources claim regarding the future of AI, billionaires building survival bunkers, cryptic "end of times" statements by world leaders, etc.

But as always, regardless of what is potentially on the horizon, each day is precious and I try not to waste it worrying too much about things mostly beyond my control.
 
The scare tactics are real.

Modern human society is now a friable complex system.

It's been heaped with multiple traumas over the past two decades, and over the last 6 years in particular.

We dont need AI to bring it all down.

Once ill timed fart at the UN and we're done for. IMO
 
I listened to a couple radio shows about this, this week. They said one of the scariest problems with AI is the lack of morals. AI could be asked if they knew the rules, AI could acknowledge affirmative, then go ahead break the rules anyway.

Then as mentioned the crux of the problem with the USA slowing advancement, it allows other countries to gain a lead

The Pandora's box is if a crime is committed, how to you "arrest" AI
 
The driver will always be liable unless insurance and other legal frameworks shift dramatically. Not holding my breath. On the other side, no business would want to take ownership of their autopilot running amuck in consumer markets. Knowing that my insurer won't recognize autopilot as a legal responsible driver there is zero chance I'm trusting it to take me through any populated areas.


"Ms Vasquez was in the driver's seat, and had the ability to take over control of the vehicle in an emergency."

When everything works well, hurray AI; but when something goes wrong the liability falls back on the unbeknown human. How convenient.
 
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No brainer. Elon.
I wish corporate leadership / ownership was held personally responsible for their decisions, but that rarely happens.

There are a variety of driverless trucks on the road (at least down south), which have gotten into a variety of accidents (none terrible so far). I wonder how those accidents are paid for. I imagine someone just pays out of pocket for fear of legal costs to figure out the "right" way - probably the truck company or their insurer.
 
I wish corporate leadership / ownership was held personally responsible for their decisions, but that rarely happens.

Let's deal with a local example for a start. We all know that there is such a thing as "directors' liability". If, as an employer, you withhold taxes from your employees, then fail to remit them to the guv'ment, the company's directors become liable for the debt - you can't escape that via the company's insolvency. It can also apply in cases of fraud.

I'd particularly like to see that applied to orphaned well cleanup, which is a real problem out here. As a taxpayer I have zero interest in picking up the tab for it when an O/G company defaults on their responsibility. Make the directors fucking pay for it, and if they don't, put them in jail. If they want to reduce the risk of that happening, they can put the money in trust before they start drilling. But enough of that shit.
 
I'd particularly like to see that applied to orphaned well cleanup, which is a real problem out here. As a taxpayer I have zero interest in picking up the tab for it when an O/G company defaults on their responsibility. Make the directors fucking pay for it, and if they don't, put them in jail. If they want to reduce the risk of that happening, they can put the money in trust before they start drilling. But enough of that shit.
I'm not sure sure how familiar you are with AB energy sector Regulatory history & where the province is today vs a 10 years ago vs 30 years before that. The media has a knack of distorting reality or steering opinions by selective evidence or sheer incompetence. And the O&G sector is unique in many ways that dont align to other business facets. I'm not defending it, I'm just providing background.

First off, the Directors are long gone because the companies are bankrupt & with that all forms of financial liabilities. Yes, the well didint get abandoned, but also, bank didnt get their loans repayed, shareholders took a bath, the Crown or Uncle Tom, didnt get their royalty payment, Aunt Jill didnt get her surface lease rental check, any O&G partners in the well (extremely common) are still stick holding their share of the bag. So there is no Director/Company blood to let at least under legal bankruptcy. But I like your thinking. Say... if the government (Directors) creates yet another massive financial boondoggle of behalf of public taxpayers, maybe consequences should apply? Is that loan to a foreign country ever going to get repaid? I mean 1$ to this vs 1$ to orphan wells is the same dollar right? I've seen numbers like if entire orphan well bill was paid today it works out to $345 per AB resident. Not chump change & certainly a distasteful expense. My point is put that $-amount in the same context of what Joe Average pays in annual taxes. Do we have the same granularity & confidence of where the big money goes?

The orphan well issue in Alberta is/was driven by a combination of systemic regulatory loopholes, historical economic downturns, structural corporate dynamics, and inadequate financial security mechanisms. At its core, a well becomes an "orphan" when the company holding its licence goes bankrupt or insolvent, leaving behind unperformed cleanup obligations with no legal owner to cover the bill. All I can tell you is there is more information to understand & digest, most all of it in the public domain. For numerical context ~470,000 wells have been drilled in AB. Designated Orphan Wells account for roughly 1.5%-1.6% of these in Alberta's entire drilling history. Designated orphans make up ~8% of all inactive wells in AB. The remaining 92% of inactive wells are still held on company balance sheets under mandatory annual cleanup targets set by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). From spud to remediation, all wells fall into very specifically defined categories, all with responsibility levels, with clocks running & enforecement.

In AB, when Company A acquires assets from Company B, A inherits the end-of-life abandonment, remediation, and reclamation liabilities for all transferred assets, regardless of whether those wells are producing, suspended, or inactive. This extends to not just wells but pipelines, infrastructure, surface & subsurface. But AER Approval is Mandatory: Well licences do not transfer upon closing of a private deal. The AER must formally approve the licence transfer application before the legal obligation moves from B to A. Holistic Licensee Assessment (Directive 088): Rather than using the old formulaic Liability Management Rating (LMR), the AER evaluates both companies using a Holistic Assessment. They evaluate Company A’s financial health, magnitude of existing vs. new liabilities, remaining asset lifespan, and operational history. Security Deposit Conditions: If the AER determines that taking on Company B’s liabilities puts Company A at a high risk of defaulting or failing to cover closure costs, the AER may require Company A to put up a substantial security deposit (cash or letter of credit) before approving the transfer. If Company A cannot provide this, the transfer will be denied, leaving the liability with Company B. O&G compnies are compelled under law to follow a specifc path towards remediation.

Anyway maybe enough information to get you Googling.
 
Another view on AI. When I was a young man, I worked as a counterman at a plumbing wholesaler. Wrote up dozens of orders per day, on multi-part carbon forms. So much writing we all had pen-generated calluses on the inside of our middle fingers.

So then big computers came along, and now we still wrote up our orders, but then we handed them to order-entry clerks who keyed the orders into the IBM mainframe so the orders would print in the warehouse.

Then PCs arrived, and now we entered our own orders, and all of the minimum-wage young women in the order entry pool disappeared. As I moved up the corporate ladder and began dealing with large corporate accounts, I was never able to convince the bean-counters that having experienced sales people enter orders was penny-wise and pound-foolish. I generated no new revenue while keying orders, and all us old guys couldn’t type so it took us forever to key anything. Plus we made a LOT of mistakes.

And we started typing our own major proposals, since we no longer wrote up our customer quotes and had them typed up by the steno pool, who often caught major mistakes.

Manager now type up their own reports, very slowly.

So will AI replace the low-level minimum wage employees with expensive IT folks, just like PCs replaced the steno pool, replacing the mechanical tasks done by stenos with expensive higher-ranked people?

And no, stenos weren’t stupid, but they worked cheap.
 
AI = tulips = South Sea spices = gosh, we’ve got lots of history on this stuff

Yeah, that's about how I read the whole "AI" market. Lots of folks that read and re-read their own brochures, until they were convinced that they were ON to the next "Gold Rush".

In My observations, it seems to me, that most of the current, so called "Artificial Intelligence" is aimed at being manipulative, or outright Influential, in attempting to make us believe stuff that is not actually true.

Have been subject to far too many advertisements claiming how companies were investing in AI companies, and from my side, all those adverts missed out on, was the sounds of many Toilets flushing, to represent the money that they were flushing down the crapper!

There ARE actually places where this stuff fits and can be used (mostly data analysis, etc.), but in my opinion, most of it simply serves to drive up the local electrical costs in the areas of the Data centers... Which, with no surprise at all, generally are that places that they were knocking on doors selling the idea that the infrastructure was about tapped out, and you needed to wrap blankets on your water heater and switch all your house to compact Fluorescent Bulbs (remember those? Even more mercury in the Environment! Great advice from a reliable source, eh?).
 
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