Joe The 40amp on the #8 circuit to your garage lends me to believe it maybe a 60 degree circuit. If it is a 75 degree then you should be ok to go to 50amp. But with your numbers above this may not stop the tripping it just will make it less likely. As your putting a lot of amps down the line for the welder. I would say you should be okay going to a larger breaker but I think you may have a bigger problem with capacity on the circuit. As other have stated contact your local inspection authority and see what they will allow. Most inspection groups will talk to you and give you a better idea of what is good for your situation. I do not think you will be running in to any weird local rules but one never knows. As others have alluded to compliance limits your liability for insurance.
