I must admit I'm worried about tariffs. Imagine you have a box on the way to the USA with $100,000 worth of product purchased by a US customer. Under the NFTA and current free trade agreement there is no duty on this and the customer has a tax license so they pay no state sales taxes on it. The items, Made in Canada, are destined to go inside an American manufactured Product.
So if a 25% tax is applied the question is where. What I think many are missing, including the media, is that once the product hits US soil it's held until duties and taxes are paid. For example I waited almost a month for DHL to let me know I owed $36 before they would clear the item and ship it to me.
So the customer should pay this 25% tax? Why? I'm guessing that new American ERS is going to tell the shipper that 25% is due before they will release the package. The US customer says we can't afford the 25% and the PO was for $100K not $125K. So we Canadians tell the ERS and the shipping company to return the goods.
No! Says the ERS. It's now on US soil. It's entered the USA. The 25% import tax must now be paid before the goods leave the customs secure area. Doesn't matter if they are going back to Canada or to the customer in the USA.
This is what I believe Trump is actually going to do with his new ERS. And in that way he makes Canadians and Mexicans pay rather than the end client. Of course that only works for the existing orders in transit. Once we figure out that he's doing that my guess is Canadian customers will first insist on a 25% down payment on their now $125,000 items.
Same with softwood lumber. The lumber ends up in Customs, and is held until the 'supplier' pays the 25%.